Is the Wagner mercenary troups on the verge of the end after the death of their boss Prigozhin? Observers in Russia assume that – and apparently so does President Putin. Because he already seems to be looking for a replacement.
It was less than two weeks ago that Yevgeny Prigozhin reported with a video that showed him in a desert-like landscape. The Wagner boss seemed to be full of energy and gave the impression that his troupe was once again concentrating fully on activities in Africa.
“We work. The temperature is +50 degrees. Everything the way we love it,” he said in it. “The Wagner group conducts reconnaissance and search activities, makes Russia even bigger on all continents and Africa even more free.”
After Prigozhin’s death, the question of the future of his empire and that of his fighters grows ever louder. Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov could not or did not want to answer them and took refuge in the argument that according to Russian law there should not actually be a private army.
The Kremlin is keeping a low profile
It was just a group of fighters who had done a great job in the Ukraine. “The heroism of these people will not be forgotten, that’s what the President spoke about,” said Peskow. “As for the future, I can’t say anything right now – I don’t know.”
The Kremlin also still doesn’t know how the crash could have happened in the first place. There could not be an international investigation, the work of the Russian investigative team had to be awaited, said Peskov. Several versions of the incident are being considered, “including, let’s put it this way, willful misconduct.”
Influence and lucrative deals
For a long time, the Wagner troupe was a welcome instrument for the Kremlin to implement its own interests abroad, so to speak “under false flags”. Whether in the war in Syria or on the African continent. In the deals with African autocrats and military juntas, the formula always applied: protection against participation in mineral resources. A lucrative business for Prigozhin and the Kremlin was able to expand its influence in Africa.
After the failed Wagner uprising, the once close bond between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin was severed. Some of the fighters went to Belarus, and according to the ruler there, Alexander Lukashenko, they should stay there for the time being to train the Belarusian army.
A future in Belarus?
“‘Wagner lived, Wagner lives and Wagner will live in Belarus, whether anyone likes it or not,” Lukashenko explained. “Prigozhin and I had already created a system of how we would work.” Although he would then probably have to take over the financing of the Wagner troupe. According to experts, the Kremlin was apparently no longer willing to do so.
The only option left for the other fighters was to join other units, said Duma deputy Viktor Sobolev at the beginning of the week. “There are two options: either find yourself in civilian life, or become a contract soldier, serve in the formations and units that are now being formed.”
Is Putin already looking for a Wagner replacement?
In Russia, many observers assume that the end of the Wagner troupe is now sealed. In the Novaya Gazeta Europe podcast, journalist Olga Romanova said: “Actually, it’s the end of Wagner. They can wave flowers and teddy bears as much as they want in their memorial camps, but that’s an end.” In addition, Wagner’s legacy had already been divided before Prigozhin’s death. “We observed how the private army Redut began actively recruiting.”
The Redut mercenary force could take Wagner’s place alongside other private military companies such as Convoy or Patriot. In order to put a stronger leash on them, Putin signed a decree at the end of last week, according to which all members of paramilitary organizations must in future swear allegiance and loyalty to Russia and also vow to strictly follow the orders of the commanders and superiors.
Political scientist: Wagner commanders poached ready
The Russian political scientist Michael Naki reports on his YouTube channel that important Wagner commanders in Africa had already been poached before Prigozhin’s death. “In fact, the Ministry of Defense and the private military company Redut are the main players that have started to drive the Wagner Group out of Africa,” he said.
In this way they would have taken over several high-ranking Wagner employees. “And after these staff brought a database of all the Wagner fighters, they started calling them and saying, ‘Let the private army send you to Africa. Let Wagner be – come with us,'” Naki said.
The political scientist assumes that the Wagner troupe will no longer exist. The chance that someone will take control of Prigozhin’s former empire is slim. Incidentally, the name Wagner now has negative connotations – and people in power are reluctant to be associated with problems.
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